Jonas Vingegaard odds in autumn 2026 come down to one question: how strong will he be when he returns after his crash at the Tour de France? His next race is the Tour de France 2027 (from 2 July 2027), which the team has called the main goal, although the programme is not official yet. You will not find real odds or tips here. We explain how cycling odds work, what his record says and which risks come with betting on a stage-race rider. This page is for adults aged 18 and over only.
What Jonas Vingegaard’s record says before the 2027 Tour de France
Jonas Vingegaard has won the Tour de France 2 times. In 2022 he beat Tadej Pogačar by 2:43 and also took the polka-dot jersey; in 2023 the margin was 7:29, built partly in the time trial from Passy to Combloux, where he was 1:38 faster than Pogačar. From 2021 to 2025 he finished in the top two of the Tour five years in a row. He won the Vuelta a España in 2025, and in May 2026 he won the Giro d’Italia at his first attempt with five stage wins, becoming the eighth rider in history – and the first Dane – to win all three Grand Tours.
There is another side to it. Against Pogačar the score is 2-4 in the six Tours they have both started. In 2026 he abandoned on stage 15 on 19 July after a crash in which he broke his collarbone; at that point he was second overall, 4:30 behind the leader. He is ranked no. 6 in the UCI world ranking (as of 22 October 2026), which counts points from the last 52 weeks.
| Year | Position | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2nd | 5:20 behind Tadej Pogačar |
| 2022 | 1st | 2:43 ahead of Tadej Pogačar |
| 2023 | 1st | 7:29 ahead of Tadej Pogačar |
| 2024 | 2nd | 6:17 behind Tadej Pogačar |
| 2025 | 2nd | 4:24 behind Tadej Pogačar |
| 2026 | Abandoned (stage 15) | Second, 4:30 down, when he crashed |
The 2027 Tour de France route
The 2027 Tour de France starts on 2 July 2027 in Britain. The route has 71 km of time trialling and three summit finishes: Grand Colombier, Les Saisies and the Col du Portet. Visma | Lease a Bike has called the race his main goal for 2027, but as of 25 October 2026 his race programme has not been published. Long time trials have not always suited him: on stage 10 of the 2026 Giro he finished 13th, around three minutes down on Filippo Ganna. His full record is on our page about Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France.
How to read cycling odds
In Denmark odds are shown as decimal odds: the number tells you how much is paid out per krone if the bet wins, stake included. The examples here are purely hypothetical and have nothing to do with a specific race or bookmaker. Odds of 3.50 mean that a 100 kr. stake returns 350 kr., i.e. 250 kr. profit. If the bet loses, the whole stake is gone.
Odds convert to a probability by dividing 1 by the odds: 3.50 corresponds to about 28.6 per cent, 2.00 to 50 per cent. That is the bookmaker’s estimate plus a margin – not a statement of what will happen.
| Odds | Return on a 100 kr. stake | Probability (1 ÷ odds) |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 150 kr. | 66.7% |
| 2.00 | 200 kr. | 50.0% |
| 3.50 | 350 kr. | 28.6% |
| 6.00 | 600 kr. | 16.7% |
| 21.00 | 2,100 kr. | 4.8% |
The bookmaker’s margin in a big field
An outright market on the Tour de France lists the whole peloton. Add up the implied probabilities of every rider and you always get more than 100 per cent – and the more outcomes there are, the more room there is for the bookmaker’s built-in edge. That is why bettors lose money on average over time. Odds also reflect how customers bet, so a popular Danish rider may be priced shorter than his chances alone justify.
Cycling bet types: winner, podium, stages and jerseys
The choice varies between bookmakers and races. Here are the common bet types, explained neutrally – not as recommendations.
- Race winner (outright): who wins the general classification; settled only after the final stage, with many possible winners.
- Podium and top 10: the rider must finish in the top three or top ten overall. Odds are shorter because there are more ways to be right. His five straight top-two finishes at the Tour are history, not a promise.
- Stage winner: GC riders usually win on mountain stages and in time trials. Vingegaard has 14 individual Grand Tour stage wins: four at the Tour, five at the Vuelta and five at the Giro.
- Head-to-head between two riders: which of two riders finishes higher, overall or on a stage – a classic for Vingegaard versus Pogačar. What happens if one or both abandon is set out in the bookmaker’s rules.
- Jersey competitions: the points and mountains jerseys; the yellow, pink and red jerseys follow the overall standings.
The risks behind Jonas Vingegaard odds: crashes and team tactics
One moment of bad luck can decide a whole race. On 4 April 2024 at the Tour of the Basque Country he broke his collarbone and several ribs and suffered a collapsed lung – and still finished second at the Tour that summer. At Paris-Nice 2025 he was leading when he crashed on stage 5 on 13 March and did not start stage 6. At the 2026 Tour he was second when he crashed out. If a rider abandons, a bet on him to win is usually lost; if he does not start at all, it depends on the bookmaker’s rules, so read them before betting on a race months ahead. More on his injuries is on our page about Jonas Vingegaard’s crashes.
Team tactics are the other big uncertainty. At the 2023 Vuelta he won two mountain stages and closed to 8 seconds of team-mate Sepp Kuss, but the team let Kuss keep the lead and Vingegaard finished second, 17 seconds down. In his first Grand Tour, the 2020 Vuelta, he rode for Primož Roglič and finished 46th. According to Domestique (20 October 2026), the team is still discussing whether he should ride both the Giro and the Tour in 2027; nothing is official.
Jonas Vingegaard odds before his next race: what to watch
Most recently he abandoned the Tour de France 2026 (19 July 2026). Until his first race of 2027 there are few new results to go on. These factors can change the picture quickly:
- The official programme – which races he rides before the Tour. We update our Jonas Vingegaard race schedule as soon as the team publishes it.
- Early-season form – in 2026 he won Paris-Nice and the Volta a Catalunya before the Giro.
- The rivals – from 2021 to 2026 Tadej Pogačar won the Tour four times; see Vingegaard vs Pogačar. Remco Evenepoel, second in 2026, and João Almeida are also among the big names.
- The route – time-trial kilometres and summit finishes shape which riders a race suits.
Gamble responsibly – 18+ only
This page is information for cycling fans – not betting advice and not a promise of any result. If you choose to bet, you must be 18 or over, and in Denmark you should only use bookmakers licensed by the Danish Gambling Authority (Spillemyndigheden). Set a fixed limit and never bet money you cannot afford to lose.
A three-week stage race offers new bets every day, so set a limit for the whole race, not just one stage. You can exclude yourself from all Danish-licensed operators via ROFUS, and StopSpillet offers free, anonymous advice on +45 70 22 28 25. Read more on our responsible gambling page, and see betting on Jonas Vingegaard with licensed bookmakers for how to check a licence. Jonas Vingegaard and his team have no connection with this site or with any bookmaker.
Is Jonas Vingegaard the favourite for the 2027 Tour de France?
Each bookmaker makes its own assessment, and odds move all winter. We do not show odds. Jonas Vingegaard has won the Tour de France 2 times, finished in the top two five years in a row from 2021 to 2025 and abandoned after a crash in 2026. His next race is the Tour de France 2027 (from 2 July 2027), which the team has called the main goal, although the programme is not official yet.
What do odds of 3.50 on a rider mean?
A 100 kr. stake returns 350 kr. if the bet wins, and the bookmaker rates the chance at around 28.6 per cent before its margin. The example is hypothetical.
What happens to my bet if Jonas Vingegaard abandons?
If he abandons during the race, a bet on him to win is usually lost. What happens if he does not start, or to a head-to-head bet, depends on the bookmaker’s rules, so read them first.
Does Jonas Vingegaard endorse betting on his races?
No. Jonas Vingegaard, his family and Visma | Lease a Bike have no connection with this site or with any bookmaker. Jonas Vingegaard Cykling is an independent fan and information site.